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Luca Moro says:
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The issue lies in the filtering of ICMP and ICMPv6 errors that include an
inner IP datagram.
For these packets, icmp_error_message() extract the ICMP error and inner
layer to search of a known state.
If a state is found the packet is tagged as related (IP_CT_RELATED).

The problem is that there is no correlation check between the inner and
outer layer of the packet.
So one can encapsulate an error with an inner layer matching a known state,
while its outer layer is directed to a filtered host.
In this case the whole packet will be tagged as related.
This has various implications from a rule bypass (if a rule to related
trafic is allow), to a known state oracle.

Unfortunately, we could not find a real statement in a RFC on how this case
should be filtered.
The closest we found is RFC5927 (Section 4.3) but it is not very clear.

A possible fix would be to check that the inner IP source is the same than
the out...